Connor Thomson vs Luca CastagnolaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Connor Thomson and Luca Castagnola have met 1 time since 2025; Connor Thomson leads 1–0. Across all meetings Thomson has taken 2 sets to Castagnola's 1. Their most recent meeting: Connor Thomson won at M25 Monastir 8 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Thomson | Castagnola | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Connor Thomson | Luca Castagnola | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 3/4 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 1/5 | 37% | 13/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 22% | 2/9 | 40% | 25/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 0% | 0/3 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 3/5 | 45% | 15/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 2/3 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 3/3 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 100% | 3/3 | 56% | 15/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Thomson 0, Castagnola 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Thomson
💥 Big Hitter
Castagnola
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🧱 The Wall across 482 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Connor Thomson.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 16, 2025
M25 Monastir 8
H Hard · 2nd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Thomson | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 12–10 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.31 |
| ROI % | - | -4.4% |
| Units P/L | - | -0.97u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Thomson | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 4 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | — | GER → SLO |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Dusan Obradovic
Memorijal Mile Moralic - Split Open Jolly Autoline · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 2
Karl Poling
Drummondville · 2nd Round Qualifying
Nov 10
Oliver Bonding
Drummondville · 1st Round Qualifying
Nov 9
Luca Castagnola
M25 Monastir 8 · 2nd Round
Oct 16
Yanki Erel
M25 Monastir 8 · 1st Round
Oct 14
Maxim Shin
M25 Sharm ElSheikh 4 · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alec Deckers
M25 Setubal 1 · 2nd Round
Sep 18
Giles Hussey
M25 Setubal 1 · 1st Round
Sep 17
Sebastian Sorger
M25 Slovenj Gradec · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Stefan Popovic
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maximilian Figl
M25 Slovenj Gradec · 1st Round
Aug 18
Bruno Fernandez
M15 Trier · 1st Round
Aug 12
Vladyslav Orlov
M25 Bolzano · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Luca Parenti
M25 Bolzano · 1st Round
Jul 28
Dimitris Sakellaridis
M15 Nova Gorica · Final
Jul 19
Gabriele Bosio
M15 Nova Gorica · Semifinals
Jul 18
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 9–62 matches
| Metric | Thomson | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 44% |
| Sets won | 45% | 45% |
| Games won | 46% | 48% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Thomson | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Thomson | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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