Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca PotenzaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carl Emil Overbeck and Luca Potenza have met 1 time since 2026; Luca Potenza leads 1–0. Across all meetings Overbeck has taken 0 sets to Potenza's 2. Their most recent meeting: Luca Potenza won at Manacor Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Emil Overbeck | Potenza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carl Emil Overbeck | Luca Potenza | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 43/57 | 57% | 16/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 24% | 5/21 | 39% | 12/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 24% | 19/78 | 41% | 24/59 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 39% | 11/28 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 83% | 5/6 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 19/30 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 50/54 | 72% | 23/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 43/54 | 50% | 16/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Emil Overbeck 0, Potenza 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Overbeck
👑 The Complete Package
Potenza
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 1,744 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Carl Emil Overbeck.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 1, 2026
Manacor Challenger
H Hard · 3rd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Overbeck | Potenza | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carl Emil Overbeck | Luca Potenza | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 14/14 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 79% | 11/14 | 67% | 10/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 7/14 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 3/14 | 7% | 1/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.29 | 2.57 |
| ROI % | -12.0% | +24.6% |
| Units P/L | -0.84u | +3.44u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 793 mi · 1,276 km |
| Route | POR | FRA → POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Overbeck has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Potenza's 25%).
| Opponent | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Enrico Dalla Valle | L 16 16 | L 16 57 |
| Alec Deckers | W 63 76 | L 67 36 |
| Petr Nesterov | L 63 36 16 | L 75 36 46 |
| Mae Malige | W 76 62 | W 26 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Hugo Grenier
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alafia Ayeni
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Luca Potenza
Manacor Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 1
Ryan Peniston
Manacor Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Marcello Serafini
M25 Fano · Final
Aug 9
Leonardo Primucci
M25 Fano · Semifinals
Aug 7
Stefano D'Agostino
M25 Fano · Quarterfinals
Aug 6
Gabriele Maria Noce
M25 Fano · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Enrico Dalla Valle
Palermo Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lui Maxted
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Ivan Marrero Curbelo
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Moez Echargui
St. Tropez Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Finn Bass
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Inaki Montes-De La Torre
Manacor Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 5
Edas Butvilas
Manacor Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 4
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 59–78 matches
| Metric | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 73% | 47% |
| Sets won | 68% | 48% |
| Games won | 56% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Overbeck | Potenza |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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