Bryce Nakashima vs Keegan SmithPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Bryce Nakashima and Keegan Smith have met 1 time since 2026; Keegan Smith leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nakashima has taken 1 sets to Smith's 2. Their most recent meeting: Keegan Smith won at Columbus Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nakashima | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Bryce Nakashima | Keegan Smith | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 82% | 18/22 | 69% | 42/61 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 2/10 | 46% | 16/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 19% | 6/32 | 36% | 35/96 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 86% | 12/14 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 66% | 21/32 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 7/12 | 48% | 25/52 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 19/20 | 81% | 51/63 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 90% | 18/20 | 67% | 42/63 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nakashima 0, Smith 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nakashima
💥 Big Hitter
Smith
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Oct 1, 2026
Columbus Challenger
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nakashima | Smith | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Bryce Nakashima | Keegan Smith | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 15/15 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 15 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–4 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.80 | 1.65 |
| ROI % | +20.8% | -34.4% |
| Units P/L | +3.12u | -3.78u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 2,109 mi · 3,394 km | 2,418 mi · 3,891 km |
| Route | USA | USA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Smith has a higher win rate against shared opponents (83% vs Nakashima's 50%).
| Opponent | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Kaylan Bigun | W 75 60 | W 46 76 62 |
| Darwin Blanch | L 36 36 | W 46 63 62 |
| Quinn Vandecasteele | W 62 64 | L 67 46 |
| Noah Zamora | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Gavin Young | L 67 57 | W 64 64 |
| Gavin Young | L 67 57 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Keegan Smith
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Jack Kennedy
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Darwin Blanch
Tiburon Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Timo Legout
Tiburon Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Andre Ilagan
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Quinn Vandecasteele
Tiburon Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Kaylan Bigun
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 13
Jakub Vrba
M15 Champaign · Final
Aug 30
Hiroki Moriya
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Mitchell Krueger
Columbus Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Bryce Nakashima
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Kaylan Bigun
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dylan Dietrich
San Diego 2 Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Edward Winter
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 21
Mitchell Krueger
Tiburon Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Alexis Galarneau
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 32–96 matches
| Metric | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 69% | 64% |
| Sets won | 66% | 61% |
| Games won | 56% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nakashima | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
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