Axel Nefve vs Matthew ThomsonPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Axel Nefve and Matthew Thomson have met 1 time since 2026; Axel Nefve leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nefve has taken 2 sets to Thomson's 1. Their most recent meeting: Axel Nefve won at M15 Rochester (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nefve | Thomson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Axel Nefve | Matthew Thomson | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Wins a set when losing | 37% | 7/19 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 13/34 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 5/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 71% | 12/17 | 88% | 7/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 9/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nefve 0, Thomson 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nefve
🧱 The Wall
Thomson
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 56% vs 🧱 The Wall across 482 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matthew Thomson.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Jul 15, 2026
M15 Rochester
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nefve | Thomson | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Axel Nefve | Matthew Thomson | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 5 or more | 43% | 3/7 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–4 | 9–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.89 | 2.17 |
| ROI % | +7.9% | +47.5% |
| Units P/L | +0.63u | +5.70u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 3 | 1 |
| Distance | — | — |
| Route | USA | MEX |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Thomson has a higher win rate against shared opponents (75% vs Nefve's 50%).
| Opponent | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Joshua Peck | W 63 61 | W 63 63 |
| Benjamin Thomas George | L 60 16 36 | W 61 46 62 |
| Hunter Heck | L 57 64 26 | W 62 63 |
| Evan Bynoe | W 64 26 62 | L 16 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karl Poling
M25 East Lansing · Quarterfinals
Aug 14
Joshua Peck
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Sebastian Gorzny
M25 East Lansing · 1st Round
Aug 12
Jerrid Gaines Jr
M15 Rochester · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Nathan Cox
M15 Rochester · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Matthew Thomson
M15 Rochester · 1st Round
Jul 15
J.J. Wolf
M25 Tulsa · 1st Round
Jun 16
Thanaphat Boosarawongse
Futures 2026
Jun 9
Elijah Strode
M15 Huamantla · Semifinals
Aug 1
Matt Kuhar
M15 Huamantla · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Joshua Peck
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Lance Amaury Lage Castelan
M15 Huamantla · 1st Round
Jul 29
Alvin Nicholas Tudorica
M15 Huamantla · Final
Jul 26
Preston Brown
M15 Huamantla · Semifinals
Jul 25
Joaquin Guilleme
M15 Huamantla · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Aditya Vishal Balsekar
M15 Huamantla · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–34 matches
| Metric | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 44% | 48% |
| Sets won | 46% | 44% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nefve | Thomson |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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