Arthur Nagel vs Francesco MaestrelliPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Rennes Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- September 14 · 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.31 or shorter, Francesco Maestrelli has won 22 of 28 (79%). The price implied 75%, so Francesco Maestrelli has beaten it by 4 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Arthur Nagel and Francesco Maestrelli meet next at the Rennes Challenger on September 14 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nagel | Maestrelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Arthur Nagel | Francesco Maestrelli | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 47/69 | 54% | 14/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 12/30 | 37% | 11/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 34/99 | 41% | 23/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 34/60 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 15/26 | 50% | 13/26 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 18/29 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 58/67 | 84% | 21/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 47/67 | 56% | 14/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nagel
⚔️ The Gladiator
Maestrelli
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 949 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Francesco Maestrelli.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Nagel and Maestrelli have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nagel | Maestrelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Arthur Nagel | Francesco Maestrelli | ||
| 1 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nagel | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 3–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.38 | 2.35 |
| ROI % | -7.2% | -38.7% |
| Units P/L | -1.22u | -3.48u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nagel | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 5 |
| Distance | — | 5,458 mi · 8,784 km |
| Route | GER → MAR | CAN → USA → TUR |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 2 shared opponents, both Nagel and Maestrelli posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Nagel | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Toby Samuel | W 64 75 | L 76 36 16 |
| Sergio Callejon Hernando | L 63 16 26 | W 46 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Maximilian Figl
M25 Rabat · 1st Round
Sep 9
Yassine Dlimi
M25 Casablanca · Quarterfinals
Sep 5
Diogo Morais
M25 Casablanca · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Petros Tsitsipas
M25 Casablanca · 1st Round
Sep 2
Tim Handel
M25 Ueberlingen · Final
Aug 23
Daniel Masur
M25 Ueberlingen · Semifinals
Aug 23
Jannik Maute
M25 Ueberlingen · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Christian Djonov
M25 Ueberlingen · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Maks Kasnikowski
Istanbul Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Alafia Ayeni
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Juan Pablo Ficovich
Istanbul Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Alexei Popyrin
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Bu Yunchaokete
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Juan Pablo Varillas
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Lukas Neumayer
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–100 matches
| Metric | Nagel | Maestrelli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 70% | 47% |
| Sets won | 65% | 46% |
| Games won | 55% | 49% |