Arthur Nagel vs Diogo MoraisPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Arthur Nagel and Diogo Morais have met 1 time since 2026; Arthur Nagel leads 1–0. Across all meetings Nagel has taken 2 sets to Morais's 0. Their most recent meeting: Arthur Nagel won at M25 Casablanca (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Nagel | Morais | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Arthur Nagel | Diogo Morais | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 42/64 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 45% | 14/31 | 55% | 6/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 36/95 | 48% | 11/23 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 31/59 | 50% | 2/4 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 15/25 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 17/30 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 53/64 | 75% | 9/12 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 42/64 | 58% | 7/12 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Nagel 1, Morais 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Nagel
⚔️ The Gladiator
Morais
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 53% vs ⚔️ The Gladiator across 2,464 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Diogo Morais.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the gladiator's physical intensity.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 3, 2026
M25 Casablanca
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Nagel | Morais | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Arthur Nagel | Diogo Morais | ||
| 1 or more | 81% | 17/21 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 3 or more | 52% | 11/21 | 14% | 2/14 |
| 5 or more | 10% | 2/21 | 7% | 1/14 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–8 | 5–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.42 | 3.93 |
| ROI % | -17.0% | -15.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.90u | -1.68u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | FRA | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Morais has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Nagel's 33%).
| Opponent | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Poullain | L 57 26 | W 63 62 |
| Laurens Harnoth Manrubia | W 63 62 | W 60 60 |
| Max Houkes | L 16 57 | L 06 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Loann Massard
Roanne Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Flynn Thomas
M15 Forbach · Semifinals
Sep 26
Timeo Trufelli
M15 Forbach · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Paul Theate
M15 Forbach · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Remy Dugardin
M15 Forbach · 1st Round
Sep 23
Francesco Maestrelli
Rennes Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 16
Maximilian Figl
M25 Rabat · 1st Round
Sep 9
Yassine Dlimi
M25 Casablanca · Quarterfinals
Sep 5
Alec Deckers
M25 Setubal · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Giulio Perego
M25 Setubal · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Lucas Poullain
M25 Setubal · 1st Round
Sep 23
Pierre Antoine Tailleu
M25 Setubal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Lemuel Cassidy
M25 Setubal · 2nd Round Qualifying
Sep 21
Filipe Sustelo
M25 Setubal · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Robin Bertrand
M25 Sintra · 1st Round
Sep 16
Tomas Curras Abasolo
M25 Sintra · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 14
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 23–96 matches
| Metric | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 52% |
| Sets won | 63% | 53% |
| Games won | 54% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M25 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Nagel | Morais |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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