Anastasia Potapova vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#25 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 5–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#79 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
Anastasia Potapova and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2018; Anastasia Potapova leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at St. Petersburg in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Potapova leads 2–0. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 5 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 58% | 15/26 | 97% | 29/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 4/15 | 23% | 7/30 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 15/41 | 13% | 8/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 9/22 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 12/19 | 39% | 13/33 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 50% | 5/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 85% | 29/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 2, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 20, 2022
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 1st Round
Feb 26, 2020
Abierto Mexicano TELCEL - Acapulco
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 31, 2018
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 91% | 21/23 |
| 3 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 61% | 14/23 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 30% | 7/23 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 9% | 2/23 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/23 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/23 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 17–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 2.01 |
| ROI % | -47.9% | +8.1% |
| Units P/L | -3.83u | +2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Potapova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (40% vs Maria's 30%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Sloane Stephens | L 26 46 | L 61 67 46 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 26 57 |
| Venus Williams | W 63 63 | W 64 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 16 64 63 | W 62 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 76 26 36 | W 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 64 | L 76 57 06 |
| Suzan Lamens | W 67 64 64 | L 46 16 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 57 46 | L 26 06 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 26 61 16 | L 36 06 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 46 46 | L 46 63 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Diana Shnaider
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Venus Williams
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Suzan Lamens
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 1st Round
Jun 10
Anna Kalinskaya
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Dayana Yastremska
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Caty Mcnally
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Renata Zarazua
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Talia Gibson
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 28
Katie Volynets
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Final
Jul 12
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Semifinals
Jul 11
Lucrezia Stefanini
Hall of Fame Open - Newport · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–60 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 50% |
| Sets won | 58% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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