Anastasia Potapova vs Tatjana MariaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇷🇺Anastasia Potapova
#26 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 5–2
🇩🇪Tatjana Maria
#71 · 38 yrs · Right-Handed
4TitleAnastasia Potapova and Tatjana Maria have met 3 times since 2018; Anastasia Potapova leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at St. Petersburg in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Potapova leads 2–0. Across all meetings Potapova has taken 5 sets to Maria's 2. Their most recent meeting: Tatjana Maria won at Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Potapova | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Anastasia Potapova | Tatjana Maria | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 94% | 30/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 6/18 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 19/48 | 17% | 10/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 82% | 23/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 7/14 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 86% | 31/36 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 17/23 | 83% | 30/36 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Potapova 2, Maria 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Potapova
👑 The Complete Package
Maria
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 20, 2022
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg
G Grass · 1st Round
Feb 26, 2020
Abierto Mexicano TELCEL - Acapulco
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 31, 2018
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Potapova | Maria | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Anastasia Potapova | Tatjana Maria | ||
| 1 or more | 80% | 8/10 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 42% | 5/12 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 8% | 1/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–4 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.55 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | +19.6% | -6.7% |
| Units P/L | +1.76u | -0.87u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 1 | 1 |
| Matches | 1 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | TUR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Potapova has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Maria's 50%).
| Opponent | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Leolia Jeanjean | W 64 26 63 | W 76 64 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 46 64 62 | L 76 26 36 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 46 64 64 | W 46 61 62 |
| Sloane Stephens | L 26 46 | L 61 67 46 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 16 26 | L 26 57 |
| Venus Williams | W 63 63 | W 64 63 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 16 64 63 | W 62 61 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 76 26 36 | W 64 63 |
| Elena Rybakina | W 76 64 | L 76 57 06 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 57 46 | L 26 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sinja Kraus
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Mirra Andreeva
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Amanda Anisimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Leolia Jeanjean
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Darja Semenistaja
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Madison Brengle
W100 Templeton · Final
Oct 4
Malaika Rapolu
W100 Templeton · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Lea Ma
W100 Templeton · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Lucciana Perez Alarcon
W100 Templeton · 1st Round
Sep 30
Taylor Townsend
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 14
Nikola Bartunkova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Jelena Ostapenko
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Diana Shnaider
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–60 matches
| Metric | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 53% |
| Sets won | 57% | 55% |
| Games won | 52% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Potapova | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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