Alibek Kachmazov vs Jay FriendPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Jinan Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.10 or longer, Alibek Kachmazov has won 17 of 53 (32%). The price implied 37%, so Alibek Kachmazov has fallen 5 points short of it.
At 1.64 or shorter, Jay Dylan Hara Friend has won 11 of 17 (65%). The price implied 61%, so Jay Dylan Hara Friend has beaten it by 4 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Jay Dylan Hara Friend meets Alibek Kachmazov in the first round of the Jinan Challenger on October 12, 2026. The hard court encounter pairs the world number 260 against the number 525 ranked Kachmazov, who has built a starkly different recent trajectory. Both players took the court two days ago; Friend has played four matches in 14 days while Kachmazov has logged six.
The two have never met. Friend holds a four-match winning streak with 80% win rate over his last ten matches. Kachmazov is riding a 16-match winning streak and has won all ten of his recent matches. On hard courts specifically, Kachmazov posted an 85% win rate in his recent sample compared to Friend's 65%. They split results against common opponents Yanki Erel and Yu Hsiou Hsu, though both defeated Fajing Sun.
Friend's game relies on power and aggressive baseline striking. Alibek Kachmazov presents a more rounded skillset across service, return, and rallies. Friend will need to dictate points early and convert opportunities before longer exchanges develop. Kachmazov's consistency and current form demand that Friend maintain precision; any letdown in execution against this depth of play could prove costly.
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kachmazov | Friend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alibek Kachmazov | Jay Friend | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 26/31 | 70% | 21/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 63% | 5/8 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 26% | 10/39 | 35% | 16/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 68% | 26/38 | 44% | 11/25 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/1 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 10/14 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 93% | 28/30 | 89% | 25/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 87% | 26/30 | 75% | 21/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kachmazov
👑 The Complete Package
Friend
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Jay Friend.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Kachmazov and Friend have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kachmazov | Friend | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alibek Kachmazov | Jay Friend | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 20/20 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 82% | 9/11 |
| 5 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 64% | 7/11 |
| 10 or more | 40% | 8/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/20 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kachmazov | Friend |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 18–3 | 7–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.31 | 1.69 |
| ROI % | +11.1% | +30.6% |
| Units P/L | +2.33u | +2.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Friend has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Kachmazov's 50%).
| Opponent | Kachmazov | Friend |
|---|---|---|
| Fajing Sun | W 63 64 | W 62 62 |
| Yanki Erel | L 46 36 | W 36 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Omar Jasika
Wuning 3 Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 10
Fajing Sun
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Evan Zhu
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Charles Broom
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Grigoriy Lomakin
Wuning 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Yan Cheng Chen
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
Kuan-Shou Chen
M25 Yinchuan · Final
Sep 27
Mukund Sasikumar
M25 Yinchuan · Semifinals
Sep 26
Keisuke Saitoh
Wuning 3 Challenger · Semifinals
Oct 10
Ryan Seggerman
Wuning 3 Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong
Wuning 3 Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Yuta Kikuchi
Wuning 3 Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Max Basing
Istanbul Challenger · Final
Sep 13
Maks Kasnikowski
Istanbul Challenger · Semifinals
Sep 12
Yanki Erel
Istanbul Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Samir Hamza Reguig
Istanbul Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–46 matches
| Metric | Kachmazov | Friend |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 79% | 65% |
| Sets won | 76% | 62% |
| Games won | 60% | 54% |