Alexis Galarneau vs Mees RottgeringPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexis Galarneau and Mees Rottgering have met 1 time since 2025; Mees Rottgering leads 1–0. Across all meetings Galarneau has taken 1 sets to Rottgering's 2. Their most recent meeting: Mees Rottgering won at Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Sioux Falls Challenger
- Level
- ATP Challenger Tour
- Round
- 1st Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 26 · 11:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 2.73 or longer, Alexis Galarneau has won 17 of 53 (32%). The price implied 28%, so Alexis Galarneau has beaten it by 4 points.
At 1.39 or shorter, Mees Rottgering has won 9 of 10 (90%). The price implied 74%, so Mees Rottgering has beaten it by 16 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Alexis Galarneau and Mees Rottgering meet next at the Sioux Falls Challenger on October 26 on hard.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Galarneau | Rottgering | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexis Galarneau | Mees Rottgering | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 23/37 | 77% | 27/35 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 12/30 | 13% | 2/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 26/67 | 20% | 10/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 45% | 17/38 | 64% | 23/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 64% | 18/28 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 17/28 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 29/33 | 94% | 31/33 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 23/33 | 82% | 27/33 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Galarneau 0, Rottgering 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Galarneau
🎯 Baseliner
Rottgering
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 1,204 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 29, 2025
Mouilleron-Le-Captif Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Galarneau | Rottgering | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexis Galarneau | Mees Rottgering | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 58% | 7/12 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 33% | 4/12 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–8 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.39 | 1.92 |
| ROI % | -33.5% | +14.3% |
| Units P/L | -4.35u | +2.57u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 500 mi · 805 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | USA |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rottgering has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Galarneau's 44%).
| Opponent | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Andrade | W 57 75 64 | L 36 67 |
| Lloyd Harris | L 26 36 | L 57 46 |
| Edward Winter | W 57 75 75 | W 75 63 |
| Nishesh Basavareddy | L 46 26 | L 36 36 |
| Fajing Sun | L 57 63 57 | W 64 64 |
| Henry Searle | L 57 63 16 | W 75 63 |
| Yu Hsiou Hsu | W 46 64 64 | L 36 36 |
| Daniel Milavsky | W 63 62 | W 64 36 64 |
| Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | L 36 06 | W 64 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Lloyd Harris
Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lloyd Harris
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Elias Ymer
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Fajing Sun
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Pavel Kotov
Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Linang Xiao
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Semen Pankin
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Darwin Blanch
Fort Worth Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 23
Cosme Rolland De Ravel
Fort Worth Challenger · 2nd Round
Oct 21
Max Hans Rehberg
Fort Worth Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 19
Andy Andrade
Columbus Challenger · Quarterfinals
Oct 2
Braden Shick
Columbus Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 30
Edward Winter
Columbus Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 28
Nishesh Basavareddy
San Diego 2 Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tomas Machac
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–67 matches
| Metric | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 69% |
| Sets won | 54% | 64% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Galarneau | Rottgering |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |