Alessandra Mazzola vs Matilde PaolettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- W35 Santa Margherita di Pula
- Level
- ITF W35
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 9 ยท 4:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Alessandra Mazzola and Matilde Paoletti meet in the quarterfinals of the W35 Santa Margherita di Pula on October 9, with both players arriving on clay after matches played just a day prior. Mazzola, ranked 390, has won her last two matches and sits at 4-1 over her past five. Paoletti is ranked 728 and is also on a two-match streak, posting a 4-1 record in her last five and a 7-3 run over ten matches.
Their only prior meeting went to Paoletti, who defeated Mazzola in a head-to-head record that now stands 1-0. The two have faced similar recent opponents; Paoletti defeated Alice Rame, Alice Tubello, Camilla Gennaro, and Diletta Cherubini in matches where Mazzola lost to those same players. Mazzola did defeat Gabriela Ce in that same window, a rare bright spot in an otherwise difficult stretch against common foes.
Mazzola plays an aggressive game centered on sustained pressure and baseline exchanges. Paoletti operates as a counterpuncher, thriving on reading opponents and converting mistakes into offensive opportunities. On clay, Paoletti has posted a 60% win rate over recent play, while Mazzola sits at 45%. The match will test whether Mazzola can impose her intensity and sustain it long enough, or whether Paoletti's reactive approach and current hot run prove more durable over a full quarterfinal distance.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches ยท Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mazzola | Paoletti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alessandra Mazzola | Matilde Paoletti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 26/36 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 14/24 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 24/60 | 41% | 9/22 |
| Covers โ1.5 sets as favorite | 42% | 13/31 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 74% | 14/19 | 67% | 2/3 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 11/16 | 33% | 2/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 84% | 32/38 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 68% | 26/38 | 56% | 9/16 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mazzola
โ๏ธ The Gladiator
Paoletti
๐ช Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
โ๏ธ The Gladiator vs ๐ช Counterpuncher is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 7,923 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Mazzola and Paoletti have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets ยท Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mazzola | Paoletti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alessandra Mazzola | Matilde Paoletti | ||
| 1 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 3 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches ยท Last 90 days
| Metric | Mazzola | Paoletti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6โ7 | 12โ5 |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | 1.57 |
| ROI % | +9.2% | -2.5% |
| Units P/L | +1.20u | -0.42u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mazzola | Paoletti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Distance | โ | โ |
| Route | ITA โ ESP โ MNE | ROU โ GER โ MNE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced ยท Last 12 months
Mazzola has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Paoletti's 60%).
| Opponent | Mazzola | Paoletti |
|---|---|---|
| Francesca Gandolfi | W 63 64 | W 63 63 |
| Maria Toma | W 61 16 61 | W 76 63 |
| Diletta Cherubini | L 16 26 | W 61 60 |
| Gabriela Ce | W 62 60 | L 16 57 |
| Sofia Rocchetti | W 61 64 | L 62 16 03 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Beatrise Zeltina
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 2nd Round
Oct 8
Sofia Shapatava
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 1st Round
Oct 7
Loes Ebeling Koning
W50 Plovdiv ยท Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Dunja Maric
W50 Plovdiv ยท 2nd Round
Sep 24
Rositsa Dencheva
W50 Plovdiv ยท 1st Round
Sep 23
Beatrise Zeltina
W50 Pazardzhik ยท 1st Round
Sep 14
Federica Trevisan
W35 Trieste ยท 1st Round
Aug 24
Teodora Miron
W35 Bistrita ยท 2nd Round
Aug 20
Eva Bennemann
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 2nd Round
Oct 8
Francesca Gandolfi
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 1st Round
Oct 7
Alisa Oktiabreva
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Daria Yesypchuk
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 2nd Round
Sep 17
Maria Toma
W35 Santa Margherita di Pula ยท 1st Round
Sep 16
Marianne Argyrokastriti
W35 Reus ยท Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Diletta Cherubini
W35 Reus ยท 2nd Round
Sep 10
Sophie Greiner
W35 Reus ยท 1st Round
Sep 8
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won ยท Last 12 months ยท 22โ60 matches
| Metric | Mazzola | Paoletti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 64% |
| Sets won | 60% | 60% |
| Games won | 53% | 57% |