Aleksandar Tolev vs Mattia NannelliPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- M15 Burgas
- Level
- ITF M15
- Round
- Quarterfinals
- Surface
- Clay
- Date & time
- October 9 · 4:05 AM ET
Book odds
Mattia Nannelli meets Aleksandar Tolev in the quarterfinals of the M15 Burgas on clay on October 9. Nannelli, ranked 2219, has won four consecutive matches and four of his last five overall. Tolev sits at 1626 and is on a two-match winning streak after competing in six matches over the past 14 days.
The two have never faced each other. Both players won against Juan Alejandro Hernandez in recent outings. On clay, Nannelli holds a 10-10 record while Tolev has posted 12-8, reflecting steadier comfort on the surface.
Both men play an aggressive baseline game that relies on heavy groundstrokes and sustained pressure. Nannelli has won four straight and four of five matches; Tolev has won two straight and six of ten over a longer span. The match will test whether Nannelli can sustain his run against someone with a more stable clay record, and whether Tolev's selective scheduling translates to durability against a player operating at high volume.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tolev | Nannelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aleksandar Tolev | Mattia Nannelli | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 3/4 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 3/7 | 22% | 2/9 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 4/11 | 15% | 2/13 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 1/2 | 0% | 0/4 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 43% | 3/7 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | — | 0% | 0/3 | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 80% | 4/5 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 3/5 | 80% | 4/5 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tolev
⚔️ The Gladiator
Nannelli
⚔️ The Gladiator
Matchup analysis
Both Aleksandar Tolev and Mattia Nannelli are ⚔️ The Gladiator types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 1,348 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Tolev and Nannelli have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tolev | Nannelli | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aleksandar Tolev | Mattia Nannelli | ||
| 1 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 50% | 2/4 |
| 3 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/4 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/4 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tolev | Nannelli |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 3–1 |
| Avg odds | 5.61 | 2.67 |
| ROI % | +57.1% | +124.8% |
| Units P/L | +5.14u | +4.99u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tolev | Nannelli |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 1 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | BUL | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Tolev and Nannelli posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Tolev | Nannelli |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Pavic | W 61 63 | W 76 46 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Maxence Bertimon
M15 Burgas · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Mihai Alexandru Coman
M15 Burgas · 1st Round
Oct 7
Sebastian Gima
Plovdiv 4 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 20
Stefan Popovic
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
Samir Hamza Reguig
Plovdiv 3 Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Mihail Ivanov
M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Filip Pavic
M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Aleksandar Trifunovski
M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 23
Alexander Vasilev
M15 Burgas · 2nd Round
Oct 8
Rodion Chetverikov
M15 Burgas · 1st Round
Oct 6
Andrea Paolini
M15 Burgas · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Aleksander Konstantin
M15 Burgas · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 4
David Tixhon
M15 Telavi · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Mikhail Osipov
M15 Telavi · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 27
Alessandro Spadola
M25 Fano · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 2
Stefan Horia Haita
M15 Antalya 5 · 1st Round
Mar 4
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 11–13 matches
| Metric | Tolev | Nannelli |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 36% | 31% |
| Sets won | 42% | 36% |
| Games won | 44% | 47% |