Head-to-Head

Akira Santillan vs Luca CastelnuovoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇯🇵Akira Santillan

#317 · 29 yrs · R

0–0

First meeting

🇨🇭Luca Castelnuovo

#447 · 29 yrs · L

3Beat 3 favorites

Upcoming match

Tournament: Wuning 3 Challenger
Level: ATP Challenger Tour
Round: 1st Round
Surface: Hard
Date & time: October 5 · 3:05 AM ET

Book odds

Luca Castelnuovo2.10

Akira Santillan1.67

Set spread

Castelnuovo -1.52.72

Santillan +1.51.40

Game spread

Castelnuovo -11.85

Santillan +11.81

CastelnuovoHard-court specialist (89%)SantillanHard-court specialist (81%)

Record at prices like this

Luca Castelnuovo2.10implies 36%won 46%+10 pts

At 2.10 or longer, Luca Castelnuovo has won 12 of 26 (46%). The price implied 36%, so Luca Castelnuovo has beaten it by 10 points.

Akira Santillan1.67implies 64%won 57%−7 pts

At 1.67 or shorter, Akira Santillan has won 32 of 56 (57%). The price implied 64%, so Akira Santillan has fallen 7 points short of it.

Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.

Luca Castelnuovo and Akira Santillan meet in the 1st Round of the Wuning 3 Challenger on October 5 on hard court. Castelnuovo, ranked 447th, arrives after a 12-day layoff with one match in his last two weeks. Santillan sits at 317th and has played three times in the past 14 days, though both players are riding two-match losing streaks.

The two have never faced each other. Their recent records on hard court tell a similar story: Castelnuovo is 10-10 at 50%, while Santillan stands at 8-12 at 40%. Against common opponents, results have been mixed and split. Santillan beat Alastair Gray where Castelnuovo lost; Castelnuovo defeated Takuya Kumasaka in a match Santillan dropped. Both have lost to Antoine Ghibaudo and Ilya Ivashka.

Both players rely on aggressive baseline hitting and heavy shot-making. Castelnuovo has converted wins against Kumasaka and Evan Zhu in recent play, though his last five matches show a 40% win rate. Santillan's three-match calendar may offer more rhythm than Castelnuovo's extended break, but his form has been shaky; Akira Santillan won 3 of his last 10 matches. Consistency and ball control across the full match will matter most.

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Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Santillan	Castelnuovo
Indicator	Akira Santillan		Luca Castelnuovo
Wins in straight sets	78%	40/51	84%	26/31
Wins a set when losing	28%	9/32	29%	7/24
Goes to a deciding set	24%	20/83	22%	12/55
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	65%	30/46	68%	17/25
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	50%	14/28	52%	12/23
Tiebreak sets won	53%	8/15	60%	9/15
Wins after taking set 1	96%	44/46	90%	28/31
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	87%	40/46	84%	26/31

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Santillan

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Castelnuovo

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

Both Akira Santillan and Luca Castelnuovo are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 3,990 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.

Previous meetings

First career meeting

Santillan and Castelnuovo have never faced each other on tour.

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Santillan	Castelnuovo
Outcome	Akira Santillan		Luca Castelnuovo
1 or more	100%	16/16	100%	16/16
3 or more	75%	12/16	100%	16/16
5 or more	38%	6/16	94%	15/16
10 or more	13%	2/16	50%	8/16
15 or more	0%	0/16	19%	3/16
20 or more	0%	0/16	0%	0/16

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Santillan	Castelnuovo
W-L	7–9	8–7
Avg odds	2.28	2.63
ROI %	-26.9%	+36.2%
Units P/L	-4.31u	+5.43u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Santillan	Castelnuovo
Countries	1	1
Events	4	3
Matches	6	8
Distance	1,831 mi · 2,947 km	1,518 mi · 2,443 km
Route	CHN	CHN

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Santillan has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Castelnuovo's 40%).

Opponent	Santillan	Castelnuovo
Pavel Kotov	L 46 67	L 76 57 57
Omar Jasika	W 62 63	W
Yaojie Zeng	W 75 63	W 64 63
Ilya Ivashka	L 46 64 16	L 36 46
Antoine Ghibaudo	L 46 16	L 57 46
Alastair Gray	W 26 62 63	L 16 01
Max Basing	L 26 36	L 46 76 36
Coleman Wong	W 64 62	L 46 64 57
Evan Zhu	W 60 75	W 63 67 63
Takuya Kumasaka	L	W 64 75

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Santillan

LLWLWLLW

Luka Pavlovic

Jingshan Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 29

Alex Bolt

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying

Sep 23

Kaigaoge Kang

Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying

Sep 22

Pavel Kotov

Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round

6⁴7

Sep 16

Yaojie Zeng

Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 14

Bernard Tomic

Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 8

Ilya Ivashka

Zhangjiagang Challenger · 2nd Round

Sep 3

Omar Jasika

Zhangjiagang Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 1

Castelnuovo

LLWLWWWW

Pavel Kotov

Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying

76⁴

Sep 22

Elias Ymer

Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round

6⁶7

Sep 16

Omar Jasika

Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round

Sep 15

Ilya Ivashka

Shanghai Challenger · Semifinals

Sep 12

Ji Sung Nam

Shanghai Challenger · Quarterfinals

Sep 11

Tung-Lin Wu

Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round

Sep 10

Chun-Hsin Tseng