Aaron Bailey vs Marko MesarovicPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Aaron Bailey and Marko Mesarovic have met 2 times since 2026; Marko Mesarovic leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at M15 Lakewood in 2026 on hard. On hard courts Mesarovic leads 2–0. Mesarovic has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Bailey has taken 0 sets to Mesarovic's 4. Their most recent meeting: Marko Mesarovic won at M15 Lakewood (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Bailey | Mesarovic | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aaron Bailey | Marko Mesarovic | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 1/2 | 69% | 11/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 0% | 0/6 | 10% | 1/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 13% | 1/8 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | — | 56% | 5/9 | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 1/2 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 0% | 0/1 | 63% | 5/8 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 1/1 | 94% | 16/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 100% | 1/1 | 65% | 11/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Bailey 0, Mesarovic 2).
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2026
M15 Lakewood
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
May 25, 2026
M15 Lakewood
H Hard · 1st Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Bailey | Mesarovic |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | - | 6–3 |
| Avg odds | - | 2.19 |
| ROI % | - | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | - | +0.71u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 1 shared opponent, both Bailey and Mesarovic posted a 100% win rate.
| Opponent | Bailey | Mesarovic |
|---|---|---|
| James Wellington Iv | W 61 60 | W 64 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Reece Falck
M15 Los Angeles · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Marko Mesarovic
Futures 2026
Jun 1
Marko Mesarovic
M15 Lakewood · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Marko Mesarovic
M15 Lakewood · 1st Round Qualifying
May 25
Marko Mesarovic
Futures 2026
May 25
Andrew Johnson
M25 Las Vegas 1 · 1st Round
Mar 25
Joshua Peck
M25 Las Vegas 1 · 3rd Round Qualifying
Mar 24
Nathan Ponwith
M25 Las Vegas 1 · 2nd Round Qualifying
Mar 23
Oliver Bonding
M15 Ann Arbor · 2nd Round
Oct 1
Dakotah Bobo
M15 Ann Arbor · 1st Round
Sep 30
Danil Panarin
M15 Ann Arbor · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Pannawat Suttisomboon
M15 Ann Arbor · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Zachary Viiala
M15 Champaign · 2nd Round
Aug 28
Preston Stearns
M15 Champaign · Quarterfinals
Aug 28
Shu Matsuoka
M15 Champaign · 1st Round
Aug 25
Nikita Filin
M25 East Lansing · 2nd Round
Aug 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 8–26 matches
| Metric | Bailey | Mesarovic |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 25% | 62% |
| Sets won | 24% | 57% |
| Games won | 36% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Bailey | Mesarovic |
|---|---|---|
| ITF M15 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Bailey | Mesarovic |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
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