ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 128 · Mutua Madrid Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kjaer
🛡️ The Spoiler
Opelka
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 60% vs 🛡️ The Spoiler across 1,261 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for Reilly Opelka here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the the spoiler's strong court coverage. On Clay, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kjaer | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–8 | 3–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.77 | 2.79 |
| ROI % | -21.3% | +7.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.41u | +0.49u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 1 career meeting
0
Kjaer
1
Opelka
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kjaer | Opelka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 8/16 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 10 or more | 19% | 3/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 43% | 3/7 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Opelka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Kjaer's 0%).
| Opponent | Kjaer | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Ofner | L 76 36 67 | W 76 75 |
| Learner Tien | L 43 14 24 24 | L 67 36 |
| Sebastian Baez | L 63 26 57 | W 63 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Kjaer | Opelka |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.2% | 68.7% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 73.9% | 83.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.7% | 59.9% |
| Aces / Match | 5.1 | 17.6 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 64.9% | 32.7% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 36.8% | 21% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 53.2% | 45.6% |
| BP Converted % | 43.6% | 26.3% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 21.8 | 31 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 29.6 | 23.7 |
| Net Pts Won % | 79.1% | 77.6% |
| Total Pts Won % | 54% | 51.8% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 25% | 0% |
Last five matches per player
Marco Trungelliti
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 11
Damir Dzumhur
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 1st Round Qualifying
Apr 4
Henrique Rocha
Grand Prix Hassan II · 2nd Round Qualifying
Mar 30
Ilya Ivashka
Grand Prix Hassan II · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 29
Remy Bertola
Challenger Cherbourg La Manche · Round of 32
Mar 11
Ethan Quinn
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 13
Taylor Fritz
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 32
Mar 22
Jack Draper
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 64
Mar 20
Nuno Borges
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 128
Mar 19
Ben Shelton
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 64
Mar 6
Matchup overview
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer and Reilly Opelka face off in the Round of 128 at Mutua Madrid Open on Clay.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leads 0-1 over 1 previous meeting.
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is 1-4 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Marco Trungelliti (Apr 11).
Reilly Opelka is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Ethan Quinn (Apr 13).
Model consensus currently favors Reilly Opelka with 56.6% confidence.
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