ATP Masters 1000 · Round of 64 · Mutua Madrid Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Hurkacz
🤖 Servebot
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,440 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and H2H matter most when Hubert Hurkacz plays Lorenzo Musetti.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Hurkacz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–7 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.95 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | -43.2% | -13.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.89u | -0.93u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Prior meetings and scores · 4 career meetings
2
Hurkacz
2
Musetti
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Hurkacz | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/8 |
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Hurkacz's 33%).
| Opponent | Hurkacz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Vacherot | L 76 36 46 | L 67 57 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 76 57 61 | W 75 76 |
| Alexander Bublik | L 76 67 57 | L 67 36 |
| Novak Djokovic | L 75 67 67 | W 64 63 13 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 76 | W 62 75 64 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | L 46 57 | L 75 46 67 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Hurkacz | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 62.1% | 64.8% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 71.7% | 72.5% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 54.5% | 50.4% |
| Aces / Match | 8.6 | 4.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Break Points Saved % | 60.7% | 59.6% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 23.9% | 32.3% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 45.3% | 48.5% |
| BP Converted % | 24.9% | 30% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 25.8 | 16.6 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 23.8 | 23.6 |
| Net Pts Won % | 66.5% | 70.7% |
| Total Pts Won % | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| Surface (Clay) | ||
| Clay Win % | 67% | 50% |
Last five matches per player
Jaime Faria
Mutua Madrid Open · Round of 128
Apr 22
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 16
Apr 9
Fabian Marozsan
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 8
Luciano Darderi
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 64
Apr 7
Ethan Quinn
Miami Open presented by Itau · Round of 128
Mar 19
Arthur Fils
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Corentin Moutet
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 16
Apr 16
Martin Landaluce
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell · Round of 32
Apr 14
Valentin Vacherot
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters · Round of 32
Apr 8
Marton Fucsovics
BNP Paribas Open · Round of 64
Mar 6
Matchup overview
Hubert Hurkacz and Lorenzo Musetti face off in the Round of 64 at Mutua Madrid Open on Clay.
Hubert Hurkacz leads 2-2 over 4 previous meetings.
Hubert Hurkacz is 3-2 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: W vs Jaime Faria (Apr 22).
Lorenzo Musetti is 2-3 over the last 5 matches. Latest result: L vs Arthur Fils (Apr 17).
Model consensus currently favors Lorenzo Musetti with 56.6% confidence.
Get $25 free
New accounts only. Create a Kalshi account and predict match outcomes.
Claim offerShare this match
