ATP Challenger Tour · Round of 32 · Lexus Nottingham Open
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gray
💥 Big Hitter
Holmgren
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 53% vs 💥 Big Hitter across 5,690 matches in our dataset. That is a small stylistic lean for August Holmgren here.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the big hitter's power groundstrokes. On Grass, that can swing with conditions.
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gray | Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 13–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.49 | 2.03 |
| ROI % | -19.8% | +13.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.77u | +2.74u |
First career meeting
Gray and Holmgren have never faced each other on tour.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 3 shared opponents, both Gray and Holmgren posted a 67% win rate.
| Opponent | Gray | Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| James Watt | W 61 61 | L 26 57 |
| Jie Cui | L 63 67 46 | W 76 76 |
| Giles Hussey | W 63 64 | W 64 64 |
Serve and return comparison · Last 90 days
| Stat | Gray | Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Serve | ||
| 1st Serve In % | 61.1% | 63.2% |
| 1st Serve Pts Won % | 69.1% | 74.6% |
| 2nd Serve Pts Won % | 49.8% | 56% |
| Aces / Match | 6.8 | 5.9 |
| Double Faults / Match | 3.1 | 3.1 |
| Break Points Saved % | 58.2% | 56.2% |
| Return | ||
| 1st Return Pts Won % | 26.8% | 27.6% |
| 2nd Return Pts Won % | 43.4% | 49.7% |
| BP Converted % | 23.1% | 52.5% |
| Rally | ||
| Winners / Match | 24.8 | 24 |
| Unforced Errors / Match | 27.6 | 29.9 |
| Net Pts Won % | 62.6% | 76.2% |
| Total Pts Won % | 47.2% | 51.7% |
| Surface (Grass) | ||
| Grass Win % | 75% | 67% |
Last five matches per player
Henry Jefferson
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Filippo Romano
Lexus Ilkley Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 8
Edward Winter
Lexus Ilkley Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 7
James Watt
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Petr Bar Biryukov
S M KRISHNA MEMORIAL OPEN · Semifinals
May 19
Jay Clarke
Lexus Nottingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 14
Max Basing
Lexus Nottingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
Lexus Ilkley Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
James Watt
Lexus Birmingham Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 1
Oliver Okonkwo
Lexus Birmingham Open · 1st Round Qualifying
May 31
Match summary
Alastair Gray and August Holmgren meet in the Round of 32 at the Lexus Nottingham Open on June 15, with grass as the surface. Gray ranks 270th on the ATP, while Holmgren sits at 143rd. The two have never faced each other.
Gray has won 3 of his last 5 matches and 5 of his last 10, arriving with momentum after a win two days ago. Holmgren's recent record runs parallel: 3 of 5 over the same span, though he comes in off a loss just yesterday. On grass, the contrast sharpens. Holmgren holds a 70% win rate on the surface, while Gray has managed only 35% across his sample.
Gray relies on power from the baseline and depth to construct points; he generates pace early and aims to dictate from the wings. Holmgren builds his game around a strong serve and keeps rallies short whenever possible. On grass, where points move faster and margins narrow, Holmgren's ability to avoid extended exchanges aligns with the surface demands. Gray must sustain aggression without over-hitting on a court where rhythm and timing amplify any miscalculation.
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